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Annie Duke

Poker champion, Thinking in Bets

“Resulting is judging a decision by how it turned out. Good decisions can have bad outcomes; think in bets, not certainties.”

The one idea

Don't judge a decision by its outcome.

Ideas in the Tracker

Thinking in bets

Separate decision quality from luck. A good bet can lose and still be a good bet.

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Wisdom
Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman

Psychologist, Nobel laureate

“Beware the confident intuitions of System 1.”

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Wealth
Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos

Founder, Amazon

“Minimize regret; it is always Day 1.”

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Wealth

Morgan Housel

Author, The Psychology of Money

“Leave room for error.”

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Wisdom
Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger

Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

“Assemble a latticework of mental models.”

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Wisdom
Marcus Aurelius

Marcus Aurelius

Roman emperor, Stoic

“You have power over your mind, not events.”

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Wisdom

Richard Feynman

Physicist, Nobel laureate

“You must not fool yourself.”

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